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Miguel Delibes:

The heretic

The asshole who gave me kind of literature in the 80's just read a book or two per year. And I fear that now walk retirees, to continue with the same habit of not reading anything but the ace This I say is not quite come to mind, but I wanted to let go. Turning now to flour, the last novel he wrote Miguel Delibes before sinking into oblivion forever, then at the final dismissal without right of termination, which is death, is not exactly the best of their production. Clear that the man had about eighty years old when she conceived, and as for me I would reach that age and be able to write, even an article as of this writing, with all its limitations. The fact is that to me this smacks novel historical convince not just me. If we assume that the writer puts part of himself, his memories, their experiences, their spirit in short, what you write, how does this assertion on the fact that the narrator puts its characters to act in a time three or four centuries before which he lives? The answer is that little of the author is reflected in the historical novel, a genre that largely covers only a few products in large volume, multi-colored cover and void content, and suitable to be read by porters or failures of the current educational system ( which, I fear, will be dominated by further bigoted asshole than me I got kind of literature, which already is). Miguel Delibes, obvious to say, not bad writing or if I wanted. But one is left with the bitterness of the mouth of the peso last work out precisely who drafted dedicated to a genre of fashion. He, who never bowed to the dictates of filthy English publishing world. The book is well written, and the evolution of character is convincing. But it lacks the pulse with his other novels. Is, in any case, as literary testament of one of the great English writers. Miguel Delibes when he died left us orphans, orphans of a novelist of law.

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a novelist in my neighborhood

Johnny

injurious

Johnny Johnny is not called because, among other things he was born in La Mancha. What happens is that Johnny is one of those rednecks who just read a book and a half in his life and considered good form to be an Anglo-Saxon name. Like those stupid parents who call their children Jonathan, or something. Johnny, as we have said in the heading, is injurious. He is well, can not help it. Slurred worldwide. English is a popular sport, that to speak ill of people, but Johnny has elevated to Olympic status. A medal Johnny gold. That does not say. The injured Johnny has a bar. Jovencillos kids go to the bar on which the injured Johnny can impose its absurd approach cokehead. I forgot to tell you: Johnny, than injurious, is addicted to cocaine. What can we do. Droguilla likes the man. Come on, more like what happens is that it is more hooked than a leech. Without your daily dose of cocaine, the injured Johnny is none. Well. Johnny is no one ever, but at least when it is placed, Johnny is thought to their own lies. Johnny lives in a world of video games, talks for autistic and constant references to "The Lord of the Rings (the movie, of course, the book is too much for poor Johnny. Moreover, the reading of "The Lord of the Rings land throw the miserable record our man boasts of never having read a single book in the last twenty years). In the bar, the injured Johnny is the king. He says being a musician as well, but music of bells, or whatever. That is at the boy. That at least he says. Who heard him speak would think that this is a misunderstood genius, and that only injustice secular music industry sold to fashion has made a career of Johnny impossible to rock stardom. Johnny goes to balding, and alopecia is something you lose sleep, though, of course, never talk about it, except in their increasingly frequent "lows" of cocaine. Johnny has over thirty years and still has not finished the race that began with twenty. But his family says yes, he already holds a degree in Education (no less). Meanwhile, while Johnny deceives his family and his girlfriend on his skills as an artist and the precariousness of his once thick mane, cocaine running through your nostrils into the brain, and he speaks and speaks ill of others. Always with the good fortune that, mind you where to, so far, nobody has broken ribs. How lucky the injured Johnny.

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economic impact of imports (of oil)

One of the issues already pointed in the other day input on the measures the government was the economic impact of oil imports. Some people are still messing around with it, thinking that imports should be avoided at all costs, and also the cost of imports is exactly the amount. So I think it's worth a spin in this case, within my limitations (much appreciate comments from macroeconomists to compensate for my shortcomings). Sorry because the entrance is long.

- First point: Is there something wrong with importing? According to economic theory, but quite the opposite. International trade to maximize efficiency, which consumers access to cheaper products, and therefore increase the welfare of societies. Of course, this is the theory, and then things get complicated (with imperfect markets, distributional issues, etc..). But what I think everyone is clear is that autarky systems are much worse for the experience (and Spain has recent history in this regard).
- Of course, everything in perspective: if all you care about, and do not produce anything, it seems impossible to generate jobs and wealth in an economy. For starters, how would you pay for imports? So it seems logical to import things, but in the economy generate enough to pay. In fact, many economies have been developed based on import and export minimally processed products with added value.
- In the case of oil, which is clearly a poorly designed product, grace is used to generate value added to it (see eg economic Sankey we have done in the Centre of the BP Chair). Typically developing plastic products or fuels for transport (which in turn serves to generate wealth.) Come on, that oil allows almost all developed economies continue to generate value.

Summary for now: the imported oil is not necessarily bad, since it allows us to create value in the economy. And if we do, is because it is the cheapest option, generally. So why do we want to reduce imports? Well, basically for two reasons:
- for the money we spend on oil is here, and
- to mitigate the price risk, and its impact on inflation

I go with the first:

Indeed, if Instead of paying for oil producing countries pay for other national, that money (with its corresponding multiplier) generates wealth in our country pays for labor and capital in Spain, ideally. And therefore, helps to reduce unemployment, to pay taxes and social contributions, etc.. But ideally he said. Why? Well, because the alternative is not to say that national income will remain entirely in Spain. Imagine replace it with bioethanol produced in Spain: in fact, to produce bioethanol will need jobs and capital in Spain, which in turn consume, pay taxes, etc. But what if the equity owner of the bioethanol plant not English? Then some of the profits will be exported. What if the workers spend their wages on non-English? Again, part of the rent will be exported. What if the oil we import is produced by Repsol, who pays his taxes in Spain? Then some of the income that we considered to be exported will remain here. Conclusion: the account is not so easy, and you have to study exactly what happens to the income in one and an alternative to actually see what is the benefit in terms of national income.

And all this we must add another term, if it appears that the national alternative is more expensive (or is subsidized, as ethanol) must be taken into account that extracoste or subsidy, as there is that behind the old account. May sometimes not be worth spending more to this loss of efficiency by the uncertain benefit in terms of national income.

So I think that in general, what most concerns the time dependence is important savings in terms of price. But the key is that from this point of view, the interest savings are not imports, but consumption: even if our oil is a national, as it has a global market, oil prices in Spain would also be subject to the international market. Come on, that things like "drill, baby, drill" Americans do not manage much in this regard.

In general, believes that oil is a volatile and increasing prices (due to increased demand, more limited supply, and power market with OPEC). It feeds the growing inflation, and volatile it reinforces this effect (to prevent other production factors to adjust rapidly to compensate). Therefore, a high consumption of oil is especially good if you want to control inflation (or, as when we are in a crisis, the tools to control inflation are incompatible with the recovery). It is true that developed economies are becoming more resistant to this effect (see for example the work of Olivier Blanchard and Jordi Gali), yet still has its importance. What is the best alternative? Then reduce the consumption, of course. Because if we do is replace it with another fuel or energy source, we turn to a discussion similar to the above: to be seen what effect price has. If we are talking about some renewables such as wind or solar power with zero fuel price, great. But what if we talk about biofuels or gas? Well then you have to look carefully: that biofuels are more "green" does not mean they can not be subject to rising prices or volatile, and more gas.

Similar to comment income: again, all this must be put next to the cost of reducing consumption. Could it be that the cost to the economy of reducing consumption (savings programs, loss of use, etc) is greater than the harmful effect of inflation.

So overview: oil imports have a negative effect, via income and via price on the national economy. But they also have positive effects (basically because oil is generally cheaper alternative, if not, would use it well ...), take the necessary accounts to determine to which compensates reduce them, and why replace them. Revkin